Journal of Consumer Research (2024) — How hedges affect persuasion

Summary:

This research examines how hedging affects persuasion.

Hedges are phrases like “I think,” “probably,” or “it feels like.” The key question: do all hedges weaken persuasion, or do some help?

Demi Oba (Duke) and Jonah Berger (Wharton) tested two hedge features: implied likelihood (high vs. low) and framing (personal “I think” vs. general “it seems”).

Across six online experiments (mostly Prolific), participants read short product or recommendation statements, then rated products, made choices, or judged speaker confidence. Study 1 rated 26 hedge phrases; later studies used randomized between-subject designs and tested mediation (confidence as the driver).

Results: hedges aren’t equal.

High-likelihood hedges were more persuasive than low-likelihood ones, and personal hedges beat general ones. In choice tasks, high-likelihood hedges substantially increased selection of the recommended option.

Low-likelihood and general hedges could hurt vs. no hedge, while high-likelihood and personal hedges often didn’t. The consistent mechanism was perceived confidence: these hedges made speakers seem more confident, boosting persuasion.

Context mattered too — high-likelihood hedges helped more when the speaker was relevant, and personal hedges helped more when the speaker seemed expert.

Limitations: controlled online scenarios, not real-world behavior. Study 1 is especially small relative to the number of phrases, and one Study 2B effect is only marginal. Methods vary across studies, but reporting is clear, and some later studies are preregistered.