Vendor reportAhrefs, 17 Apr 2025

When an AI Overview appears, the top-ranking page gets about 34.5% fewer clicks than it would have without one, measured against the natural CTR decline on similar keywords

Channel validation

Forecasted vs actual Position #1 CTR due to AI Overviews (AIOs)

Forecasted vs actual Position #1 CTR due to AI Overviews (AIOs)
Position #1 CTR	Click-through rate (%)
Forecasted CTR (March 2025)	4%
Actual CTR (March 2025)	2.6%

Reader Note:: CTR on AI Overview keywords fell from 7.3% to 2.6% over the year, while similar keywords without one fell from 5.6% to 3.1%. Applying that second decline to the first group gives an expected 4.0%, and the shortfall from there to the actual 2.6% is the reported 34.5%. The displayed CTRs are rounded, so recomputing from them lands nearer 35%. This is a before-and-after comparison against a matched control group, not a randomised experiment.
Evidence:: Quasi-experimental
Vendor interest:: Moderate — This comes from a company with a commercial interest in this market, so it is not a neutral source.
Sample:: 300,000 keywords pulled from Ahrefs' Keywords Explorer database: 150,000 keywords that trigger an AI Overview and 150,000 similar informational-intent keywords without an AI Overview. Click-through rate data came from aggregated Google Search Console data (desktop) for each keyword, compared between March 2024 and March 2025.

Good for

Estimating which way an effect goes, and roughly how big, in similar situations.

Not for

Exact numbers, or situations unlike the one studied.
This comes from a company with a commercial interest in this market, so it is not a neutral source.
This is an aggregated or average number that covers very different cases. Real results in a particular segment may differ.

4.4x

How much better an AI search visitor converts compared to an organic search visitor, on average

of Google searches that showed an AI summary ended with a click on a link inside that summary (US, March 2025)

20% of Gen Z and 17% of Millennials discover new brands through influencer endorsements, vs 12% of Gen X and 5% of Boomers

Share of each generation who discover new brands via influencer endorsements
Generation	Share who discover brands through influencers (%)
Gen Z	20%
Millennials	17%
Gen X	12%
Baby Boomers	5%

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When an AI Overview appears, the top-ranking page gets about 34.5% fewer clicks than it would have without one, measured against the natural CTR decline on similar keywords

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