Our newsletterVendor reportCassandra, 2025
Google’s own attribution credited 2 to 5 times more revenue to ads than marketing mix models did
Performance measurement
2 to 5x
higher platform-reported ROAS ran than MMM-attributed outcomes in Cassandra's dataset, depending on channel
- Reader Note:
- Platform ROAS counts all revenue from people who clicked an ad. A marketing mix model tries to count only the revenue the ads actually caused. Cassandra, which sells MMM software, says the gap between the two ranged from 2x to 5x depending on channel. It doesn’t publish the per-channel ratios or how they were calculated. The dataset covers 253 models from 59 advertisers and $383M in spend in 2023–2025.
- Evidence:
- Modelled / projected
- Vendor interest:
- High — This comes from a company with a commercial interest in this market, so it is not a neutral source.
- Sample:
- 253 revenue-outcome marketing mix models from 59 unique advertisers, covering $383M in media spend; data spans 2023-2025. Each record is one channel from one model run.
Reader Note:
Evidence:
Vendor interest:
Sample:Good for
Planning with a rough expectation, and sanity-checking your own assumptions.
Not for
- Reporting as what happened. This is what a model expects, not what anyone counted.
- This comes from a company with a commercial interest in this market, so it is not a neutral source.
- Nobody counted this directly — it's a calculation. The publisher worked it out itself, or took the ad platform's word for what its ads achieved.
- This is an aggregated or average number that covers very different cases. Real results in a particular segment may differ.
- The source never says how this number was measured.
- The source says how much it looked at, but not how any of it was chosen.
Related cards
Performance measurementTrend
Platform engagement and real effectiveness only line up in about one out of three creator ads, so most engaging content isn’t what will grow your brand
TrendPerformance measurementIdea
Idea
Open full graphMost marketers are making or planning changes to performance measurement for the AI web, mainly tracking brand visibility and citations in AI tools
Performance measurementTrend
Buyers often use Google Search or visit a cited website directly after seeing a brand mentioned in an AI answer
Go deeper on this topic
Our Substack turns the data behind these cards into full breakdowns: what changed, why, and what to do about it.
