We Studied the Impact of AI Search on SEO Traffic. Here’s What We Learned.

Summary:

Semrush analyzed how AI search tools (Google AI Overviews/Mode, ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity) are reshaping SEO and traffic in digital marketing. Since Semrush sells AI visibility tracking, the report also serves as a product pitch. It aims to estimate when AI search could surpass traditional Google search, how valuable AI-referred visitors are, and how AI tools choose which sites to cite.

Method: they turned 500+ popular SEO/marketing topics into search queries and AI prompts, compared responses and citations across engines/chatbots, and built traffic/revenue projections from historical growth and AI adoption trends.

Key findings:
• AI search traffic could overtake traditional search by early 2028 (possibly sooner if Google AI Mode becomes default).
• AI-referred visitors convert ~4.4× better than traditional search visitors; AI likely pre-qualifies users before they click.
• AI search value could match traditional search value by end of 2027.
• ChatGPT cites Google positions 21+ nearly 90% of the time; top-5 pages are cited more than positions 6–20, but you don’t need top rankings to be cited.
• Quora is the most-cited domain in Google AI Overviews, with Reddit second.
• ~Half of ChatGPT links go to business/service sites, not just forums—brand sites still matter.

Caveats: the 2027–2028 traffic/value figures are projections, not measurements. The citation/ranking results are based on observed outputs and are more concrete. The report isn’t fully transparent about prompt sets, countries/geography, or model response counts, and conclusions are framed in ways that support Semrush’s tools. The projected traffic/value and citation/domain rankings would work well as visuals.